The San Francisco 49ers suffered a brutal defeat against the Seattle Seahawks just two weeks ago, a 13-3 loss that exposed glaring weaknesses. Now, facing them again in the Divisional Round at Lumen Field, one thing is crystal clear: the 49ers' offensive fate hinges on their ability to establish a dominant rushing attack.
That Week 18 game was a disaster for the 49ers' offense. They managed a paltry 173 total yards, failing to generate any momentum on the ground or through the air. While the defense held Seattle to only 13 points, the score didn't fully reflect the Seahawks' control of the game; they had several missed opportunities that could have widened the margin. The 49ers need a complete offensive turnaround to advance.
Since Brock Purdy stepped in as quarterback, the 49ers' offense has been the driving force behind their success. To win on Saturday, they need that offensive firepower to return against what many consider the NFL's toughest defense. But here's where it gets controversial... Can they truly run effectively against a defense that seemed to have their number just weeks ago?
In Week 18, the Seahawks effectively neutralized the 49ers' passing game by using primarily two-high safety coverages (also known as two-high shells) and playing almost exclusively in nickel personnel. This strategy kept the safeties deep, preventing big plays, but also, surprisingly, stifled the 49ers' run game. Offensive coordinator Klay Kubiak understands that this cannot happen again.
"That’s why you got to run the ball versus them," Kubiak stated plainly on Wednesday, addressing the challenge posed by Seattle's defensive scheme. "That’s why you got to try to get them out of that. When teams can defend the run in two-shell, that’s what they want. So that they can keep those safeties deep and be in the pass coverages they want to play."
Essentially, if Seattle can shut down the run while maintaining their two-high safety look, they can dictate the terms of the game on defense. They can comfortably defend the pass without having to commit extra defenders to the box (the area near the line of scrimmage), making it difficult for the 49ers to exploit favorable matchups in the passing game. And this is the part most people miss... It's not just about running the ball; it's about forcing Seattle to adjust their defensive strategy.
Kubiak elaborated, "The thing [is] that, with these guys, they do a good job of playing their two-shell, but then all their coverages complement [each other] that they can kind of fit the run from their single high, from those two-shell looks. So, it’s a huge challenge, but the challenge is on us. We got to run the ball better. We got to be better on third down so we can get more ops to run the ball. That’s really the biggest thing, we got to stay on the field so we can keep calling runs. Then hopefully, you can get the defense to commit another guy in the box, which helps other things. So that’s the plan. That’s just football. We got to execute and stay on the field, and hopefully those runs will come."
The numbers from Week 18 paint a grim picture of the 49ers' rushing woes. On first and second down, they averaged a meager 3.2 yards per carry, with a longest run of just six yards between Christian McCaffrey and Brian Robinson Jr. Far too often, they were stuffed for three yards or less, consistently putting the offense in unfavorable third-down situations that they couldn't convert. Imagine trying to drive a car with the parking brake on – that's what the 49ers' offense looked like.
One key difference this week is the expected return of All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams, who missed the previous game. While he might not be at 100 percent, his presence alone should provide a significant boost to the run game. However, the 49ers need more than just Williams' return; they need to generate consistent momentum on the ground to compel Seattle to abandon their two-high safety looks. Successfully doing so would create more favorable matchups and opportunities in the passing game for Brock Purdy and the receiving corps.
Of course, Brock Purdy will need to elevate his performance from the Week 18 game. But make no mistake: the run game is paramount to the 49ers' success on Saturday. If they can't establish a consistent rushing attack, they risk another disappointing loss and an early exit from the playoffs.
Do you think the return of Trent Williams will be enough to solve the 49ers' rushing problems? Or will Seattle's defensive scheme continue to frustrate them? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!
